Thinking
Notes on artificial intelligence, strategy, company building, and the ideas shaping our next decade.
Technology and artificial intelligence (10)
- Intelligence is becoming infrastructure
We are used to thinking of intelligence as a scarce quality attached to particular people.
- New technology, old assumptions
Most organisations use new technology to do old things faster.
- Abundance creates a coherence problem
Generative AI can produce an extraordinary volume of images, words, code, and ideas.
- AI-native is a design choice
An AI-native product is not an existing product with a chat box added to it.
- Every interface carries an opinion
No interface is neutral.
- Technology arrives before society is ready
Technology can spread faster than the habits required to use it wisely.
- The future enters through an unimpressive door
Important technologies often look inadequate at the beginning.
- Human judgement moves up the stack
When machines become capable of more work, the human role does not simply disappear.
- Infallible systems are dangerous systems
Any system that considers itself incapable of error will eventually protect the error.
- The smallest serious company
For most of business history, ambition required organisational mass.
Building and entrepreneurship (10)
- A product is not a company
Building a good product is difficult.
- Constraints reveal the business
Abundant resources can hide weak thinking.
- Reality does not read the plan
A plan is useful because it forces us to think.
- Start with the narrow truth
Early companies often describe themselves too broadly.
- The first users are part of the product
For a networked product, the first users do more than test the experience.
- Speed needs a direction
I am naturally drawn to speed.
- The founder must stay corrigible
A founder needs enough conviction to continue when reasonable people doubt the idea.
- You cannot delegate the hard clarity
Founders should delegate work.
- Build where your curiosity survives difficulty
Interest is easy when an idea is new.
- Optionality can become avoidance
Keeping options open feels intelligent.
Strategy and systems (10)
- Optimising a part can damage the whole
Organisations are full of locally rational decisions that produce an irrational result.
- Strategy begins with exclusion
Strategy is not a list of ambitions.
- Complexity is often deferred disagreement
Some complexity is inherent.
- The constraint is usually not where the pain appears
Problems tend to become visible downstream from their cause.
- Incentives write the hidden strategy
An organisation may say that it values the long term, collaboration, and customer trust.
- Second-order thinking is practical humility
Every solution creates a new situation.
- A moat is a consequence
Companies often talk about building a moat as if it were a feature on a roadmap.
- Good metrics leave room for judgement
What gets measured often improves.
- Strategic patience is active
Patience is sometimes confused with passivity.
- The organisation remembers
Companies remember through processes, incentives, and habits.
Leadership and organisations (10)
- Candour without care is laziness
Direct feedback is often defended as honesty.
- Empathy sometimes needs to remove the boulder
Feeling another person's difficulty is human.
- People should look forward to working with you
For a long time, I treated demanding work and demanding relationships as if they naturally belonged together.
- Relationships do not scale, culture does
A leader cannot build a personal relationship with everyone in a large organisation.
- Context is a form of respect
Control tells people what to do.
- Freedom depends on judgement
Freedom at work is appealing because rules can be clumsy.
- Leadership begins before authority
Titles can grant decision rights.
- The emotional work is still work
Management is often described through plans, targets, and decisions.
- High standards need a human translation
“This is not good enough” may be true.
- Problem-solving is not always listening
My instinct is to solve the problem.
Growth, marketing, and distribution (10)
- Better does not guarantee discovery
Builders like to believe that a better product will eventually find its market.
- Growth can conceal weak attachment
A product can grow while failing to matter.
- Attention is not trust
Attention can be generated quickly.
- Category language sets the battlefield
The language used to describe a market is not merely explanatory.
- Distribution shapes the product
Distribution is not a pipe that carries a finished product to the market.
- Word of mouth needs a sentence
People rarely repeat a positioning document.
- A brand is stored in other people's minds
A company can own a logo.
- The customer does not experience departments
A customer experiences one company.
- Growth has a quality
Two companies can add the same number of customers and become very different businesses.
- Reach without relevance is noise
A large audience is not automatically a useful audience.
Psychology and human behaviour (10)
- Ambition and contentment are not enemies
I used to think contentment might weaken ambition.
- Character leaks through exceptions
We often excuse an action because it seems out of character.
- We explain ourselves by intentions and others by actions
When I make a mistake, I can see the pressure, the incomplete information, and the good intention behind it.
- The trait on display may be the disguise
People sometimes display a quality most loudly when they are least certain of it.
- Certainty is emotionally efficient
Certainty feels good because it ends the search.
- Envy contains information
Envy is uncomfortable, so we quickly convert it into criticism.
- Identity can become a prison built from praise
Praise feels like freedom until we become dependent on repeating the quality being praised.
- The mind seeks predictable peace
Some people seek novelty.
- Most people are protecting something
Difficult behaviour often protects something: status, belonging, certainty, dignity, or a story about who the person believes they are.
- The story changes the experience
We do not experience events directly.
Learning, focus, and mental models (10)
- Knowledge compounds through connection
An isolated fact has limited value.
- Reading is only the beginning
Reading can create the feeling of progress without requiring any change in thought.
- Busyness can be emotional avoidance
Busyness is socially acceptable and emotionally convenient.
- Explain it until the borrowed language disappears
Technical language can conceal the exact point where understanding ends.
- Focus is deciding what remains undone
Focus is often described as concentration.
- A mental model is a question, not a decoration
Mental models become useless when they are collected as impressive vocabulary.
- The best note creates a new question
A useful note does more than preserve an answer.
- Depth needs boredom
The mind needs periods in which nothing immediately rewarding happens.
- Information is abundant, attention is allocated
We speak about attention as if it were constantly stolen.
- Learning should alter prediction
If an idea does not change what we expect to happen, it may not have changed what we believe.
Investing, economics, and compounding (10)
- Compounding looks boring before it looks brilliant
Compounding rarely feels dramatic while it is happening.
- The entry price is only the beginning
Investors can spend so much effort debating the entry multiple that they neglect the duration of the business.
- Owner earnings tell a harder truth
Reported profit can be technically correct and economically misleading.
- Risk is not movement on a screen
Price volatility is visible, so it becomes an easy substitute for risk.
- Cheap can be expensive
A low multiple can create a comforting sense of safety.
- A good business earns the right to wait
Patience is easier when the business does useful work while you wait.
- Margin of safety is room for reality
A margin of safety is an admission that our estimate may be wrong.
- The market offers a price, not an instruction
Markets are useful because they offer liquidity and a constantly updated price.
- Incentives matter more than forecasts
A detailed forecast can still sit on top of a weak relationship between owners and managers.
- Long-term thinking needs near-term survival
Long-term thinking is admired because it resists the pressure of the moment.
Ambition, character, and personal growth (10)
- Ambition needs an object
Ambition on its own is restless energy.
- Excellence without proportion becomes damage
The pursuit of excellence can justify almost anything if it is never asked to respect proportion.
- Become a beginner on purpose
Competence is comfortable.
- Confidence can coexist with revision
Changing your mind is often treated as evidence that the original confidence was false.
- Discipline should reduce negotiation
The value of discipline is not constant self-denial.
- There is no final state of arrival
Achievement quietly promises a future in which uncertainty ends.
- Discomfort is not always a warning
Discomfort carries several messages, and we often interpret all of them as “stop.”
- Do not confuse intensity with importance
Some demands arrive loudly.
- The standard can stay high while the ego softens
Lowering the ego does not require lowering the standard.
- A life cannot be optimised as one system
Work, health, family, friendship, learning, and rest do not share one clean objective function.
Philosophy, meaning, and society (10)
- Democracy should feel complicated
Centralised systems can look efficient because disagreement is hidden or suppressed.
- Limits create meaning
A choice matters because another possibility is surrendered.
- Progress is real and uneven
Two errors distort how we think about progress.
- Truth and order are uneasy partners
Human networks need truth to respond to reality.
- Convenience can remove meaning
Convenience removes friction, and friction is often genuinely wasteful.
- Cosmic insignificance can be a relief
The universe does not require most of us to become historically important.
- The present is not raw material
It is easy to treat the present as raw material for a better future.
- We live inside shared fictions
Money, companies, borders, and laws are powerful because enough people behave as if they are real.
- A civilisation needs error correction
Civilisations advance when they create ways to discover and correct mistakes.
- The next necessary thing
We often delay action until the entire path becomes visible.